The economist close vote, the flag of the possibility of electoral protest

GlobalSource Partners economist says the prospect of a close presidential vote based on the momentum indicated by the March poll raises the possibility of a competitive outcome that could lead to a repeat of the 2016 election protests.

Romeo El Bernardo, the firm’s Philippine country analyst, said in a nutshell that the leadership of Ferdinand and Marcos Jr. was significant in the vote, although Vice President Ma. Leoner G. About 24% of Robredo’s followers are swollen.

“While the March poll results in the last election show a well-predicted price trend in the election results, many acknowledge that the pace of the campaign is in favor of VP Robredo. Will this time be different? “

“With less than a month to go until election day, does he have enough time to get caught?” And if he manages to narrow the gap towards Homestretch, will the 2016 election protests repeat (between the same two candidates but for the VP position) and increase business uncertainty? “He added.

He added that a survey by Pulse Asia since mid-March had found that Mrs. Robredo’s voter share had risen 9 percentage points to 24%, encouraging her supporters to intensify their door-to-door push. Winning over supporters of other candidates. “

“While the VP’s recent gains have made the presidential campaign more attractive, political pundits are keeping a close eye on the wide gap between him and Mr Marcos. A March poll found Mr Marcos still enjoying the majority of voter support (56%), down from just 4 (percentage points) his share in February. “

He also mentioned the possibility of a return to normalcy for the Philippines as reflected in the World Bank and Asian Development Bank (ADB) economic outlook, which was “mostly stable”.

The World Bank sees the Philippines’ gross domestic product (GDP) fall to 5.7% in 2022, lower than the 5.8% forecast released in October. ADB’s forecast was 6%, unchanged from its outlook in December.

“The positive outlook (reflective) is against the positive effects of increased economic activity, slower global growth and the negative impact of rising inflation, as well as rising inflation, after the lifting of the Covid sanctions,” Mr Bernardo said.

“Nevertheless, both institutions have warned of the downside risks from the deterioration of the global situation, economic and geopolitical situation in the face of a more limited macroeconomic policy chamber,” he added. – Tobias Jared Thomas