President Rodrigo R. Duterte could face trial for his controversial drug war, among other things, after resigning from office, analysts say, but a number of factors, such as his continued popularity and that of his successor, will determine whether he will ever be imprisoned. .
Says Maria Ella El Atienza, a professor of political science at the University of the Philippines The commercial world That is a text message “Given the weak party system in the Philippines, President Duterte will likely lose many allies if he steps down in late June, as politicians will be attracted to the new president.”
This is even more likely if Vice President Maria Leoner “Lenny” G. Robredo, an opposition icon, led the next administration, he added.
“A Robredo presidency could leave him without many options because of strong demands from Robredo supporters for investigations into drug warfare, red-tagging of opponents, harassment of opponents, epidemic response, corruption and corruption.” Mrs. Atienja said.
Mr. Duterte‘s party, PDP-Laban has no official presidential candidate because it is divided into two warring factions. The president himself has personally refused to support any of the candidates.
“It is unfortunate for him and his allies that they have failed to find a strong official candidate for the presidency.” Mrs. Atienja said. “He said he would not support any presidential candidate but did not know if he could reach an agreement with the president to protect him from legal challenges and investigations.”
Sol Dorotea R., an assistant professor of political science at the University of the Philippines. Iglesias President.‘Citizen Duterte’s conversion will test its popularity.
“Is it real or are respondents motivated by fear or other reasons, as new research has begun to show?” He said Business World In an email
A social weather station survey published in February showed that Mr Duterte‘Its satisfaction rating remains “Very good” Since 75% Filipinos were satisfied with his performance.
“Compared to September 2021, gross satisfaction with President Duterte increased from 67% to eight points, gross uncertainty decreased from 11% to two points, and gross dissatisfaction remained at 15%.” It said in a statement.
A Robredo presidency could support domestic and international justice against Mr Duterte because the vice president has long opposed the popular leader.‘The war on drugs and the International Criminal Court have made clear statements about allowing her to conduct investigations, Ms Iglesias said.
“Trial of extrajudicial killings and other human rights violations during President Duterte‘Activists and red-tagging targets in particular are also expected,” He said.
On the other hand, Santo Thomas University political science professor Froilan C. Kalilung said in a Viber message The commercial world Although former Philippine presidents have been sued after their respective terms, Mr. Duterte‘s popularity on a whole “Different levels.”
This is it “For the first time in recent history, an outgoing president has enjoyed a highly satisfactory and credible rating.“ Mr. Kalilung said.
“This could mean that if he resigns, people will not be interested in suing him,” He said. “Even if Lenny wins, Duterte could be imprisoned (a) far-reaching idea. ”
Presidential candidates other than the late dictator‘His son and name is Ferdinand “The wall” R. Marcos, Jr., Mr. Duterte has expressed openness to the investigation.
Ms Atienza said the prospect of legal scrutiny even after leaving Malakanang Palace would depend on Mr Duterte’s level of authority.
“A Marcos Jr. presidency may give him less time to fight for legal battles and investigations, but it depends on whether he remains influential.” He said.
“Either way, his lawyers can use the usual way to apply for humility due to old age and illness.” – Alyssa Nicole and. Tan